Premiering back in 1980, Carl Sagan’s Cosmos led us on an enthralling tour of our universe and took us on
a crash course of science. We watched as he strolled around the heavens and our
planet as he guided us through the very essence of what it meant to be human in
the natural order of things. Sagan was a wonderful guide who was clearly ahead
of his time, highlighting such issues as the possibilities of nuclear
Armageddon and global warming and there are many quotes by Sagan that are still
cited today.
Chief amongst them and most often used by palaeontologists
of today, is this one:
“The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.”
Most people would tend to agree with this, as would I, and
yet should we? On the face of it this is a very strange concept since we are
suggesting that we should accept certain issues as a given despite a lack of physical proof. In other words perhaps what
we should actually be saying is:
“The absence of evidence is the
evidence of absence.”
Let me explain what brought this on. The well documented,
and almost universal, criticism of the makers of the already much hyped Jurassic Park 4 for not having feathered
dromaeosaurids is scientifically well founded since we have extensive fossils
now of these dinosaurs clearly displaying such coverage. It is bizarre that the
producers have seen fit not to feather their raptors and their argument that it
is best to maintain a form of continuum from the previous films is a weak
excuse. Perhaps it is a blind to throw us off the scent and they will indeed
unleash feathered dromaeosaurs but I fear not.
Then last week the trailer for the new Walking with Dinosaurs 3D movie went on line globally and generally
met with a pretty good reaction. Scott Hartman, over at Skeletal Drawing, naturally enough featured a post about it since
he was involved as one of the anatomy design team for the production. One of
the comments on his blog mentioned the fact that there were no shaggy gorgosaurs
in the trailer and Scott suggested that the movie world is not quite ready for
that yet and I tend to agree with that statement.
In the comments section I pointed out the following:
“And yet, technically,
the absence of shaggy gorgosaurs is correct since Tyrannosauridae is still fuzz
free for now albeit phylogenetically likely. We cannot really moan about the
film makers in this instance because they are depicting tyrannosaurids
accurately - in as much as the fossil record permits.”
To which Scott replied:
”That doesn't necessarily follow - absence of evidence is not evidence of absence here. The
phylogenetic data is really the only data we have, so it's what we should be
relying on.”
Perfectly reasonable comment and yet my initial reaction was
to be a little bemused. We can justly criticise film makers for not including
feathered dromaeosaurs because there is
ample physical proof and yet can we justify criticism of film makers for not
including feathered tyrannosaurids when there is no actual physical evidence currently available?
The phrase itself demands closer scrutiny. In effect, and in
the simplest of terms, the following shows a classic example:
Many people take glucosamine and chondroitin tablets to ward
off the effects of osteoarthritis (OA) and yet there is no solid data that
there is any form of relationship between the two ingredients and the
prevention of OA. Therefore absence of evidence is clear but, in reality, those
who manufacture or believe in the properties of these tablets would simply
point out that just because there is no proof currently available it does not
mean that the tablets do not work – therefore absence of evidence is not
evidence of absence.
Now I confess that this has very little relevance in
palaeontological terms but it does show the dichotomy and how easy it is to
manipulate the lack of data into possibility – even probability. However, in
the case of tyrannosaurids, we have a completely different picture. I suggested
that since there is no physical proof of feathers or fuzz in tyrannosaurids
then we should not necessarily take it as a given simply because, and as Scott
pointed out, the phylogenetic data is highly indicative that they were.
So in this case, does the absence of physical evidence mean that there is no evidence for feathered
tyrannosaurids at all? Well of course not – in fact virtually the whole
coelurosaurian clade displays integument of one form of another and
Tyrannosauridae is currently the last group devoid of physical evidence. Very
important here – we are referring to tyrannosaur-ids and not tyrannosaur-oids
of which there are indeed animals displaying integument of which the most
famous in recent times is Yutyrannus
(if, in fact, it is a tyrannosauroid).
So we have lots of phylogenetic data to support the
probability of feathered tyrannosaurids but this still needs to be quantified
and rigorously tested. When this is done then the dataset will provide a
statistical probability of confidence in the hypothesis. If there is confidence
in the dataset then you must turn the process on its head and try to prove that
there is NOT a probability of feathered tyrannosaurids. This is an extremely
important part of the process and lends substantial credence to the theory.
As a result, the phylogenetic signal is highly indicative
that tyrannosaurids were indeed covered in some form of fuzz or feathered
plumage. And yet for all that detail, all that probability – indeed all of this
“evidence” – there is still no proof.
And this is where we have to be a little careful since the available data is so
compelling that we sometimes forget that physical evidence is required for
confirmation.
![]() |
| BHI 6230 (Wyrex) - No feathers here... |
The very essence of all science is based on this fundamental
process and now the onus is on finding fossils of tyrannosaurids that may
preserve impressions of fuzz/feathers. There are many specimens already in
collections that need re-examining as well as those specimens that may still
reside in their jackets and, of course, there are still many wonderful fossils
out there awaiting discovery. And, if it exists, then we should be able to find
the evidence since our detection techniques are much more advanced these days –
especially with UV light.
But, for the sake of argument, what if we never find a
feathered tyrannosaurid? What then? I mean we have the phylogenetic data but still
no proof. So we will rerun our data, perhaps add more updated information and
check and double check – but still no fossil. And then we will question
ourselves again since we keep performing the science and keep coming out with
the same results. And then if we still find no fossils then what? Perhaps we
have to consider the possibility we may be wrong.
But this is unlikely to happen and we will continue to
search for feathered tyrannosaurids because they must exist – the phylogenetic
data insists it to be true. And this is the point – we must not then fall into
the trap of “just because there are no feathered tyrannosaurids, this does not
mean they did not exist”.
“Absence of evidence
is not evidence of absence” must not become a given in science – not
without the proof to back it up. Circumstantial evidence, no matter how strong,
can lead to the wrong conclusion and we must all be aware of this. What this
lack of feathered tyrannosaurid fossils does indicate, however, is that they
are, if they exist, at the very least exceptionally rare but this, again, is
not actually proof!
There are so many variables as well – sampling and
preservational biases are probably the biggest issues here. It is also worth
pointing out that the phylogenetic dataset also has vast gaps in it although
there is still a wealth of relevant data available. As usual more fossils are
required – especially when you consider how few tyrannosauroids are actually
known throughout the Cretaceous.
So “absence of
evidence is evidence of absence” is kind of true but, at the same time, is
as equally fallible as the other. I accept the near certainty that
tyrannosaurids had some form of integument but it is not enough to merely want
to believe. In the end we have the data, we have the hypothesis and all we need
now is the proof.











